Dawn Treader’s Fifth Week at the Box Office
Now that kids are back in school, The Voyage of the Dawn Treader (along with other family films) took a steep dive domestically at the box office, dropping 55% from last weekend. It made another $4.6 million bringing the domestic total to $94.5 million.
Dawn Treader continues to perform well overseas. In addition to opening number one in China last weekend, the movie placed 5th overall in foreign markets, bringing in another $17.7 million. The Foreign Total is now approximately $242.9 million.
Worldwide, The Voyage of the Dawn Treader has made $337.7 million (est.) in its fifth week at the box office.
Our forum is abuzz with speculation surrounding the box office numbers. wolfloversk has been posting weekly graphic updates comparing all three Narnia movies’ box office results. narnian1 has been comparing individual country totals between The Lion, the Witch and the Wardrobe, Prince Caspian, and The Voyage of the Dawn Treader, which you can check out here. And FriendofNarnia2 has been sending me updates for our Box Office page.
But along with all of this analyzing, one major question still remains — now that the worldwide total has over-doubled its production budget, is that enough to greenlight the next movie? It’s very difficult to say, honestly. A few weeks ago I did some research because for all my time at NarniaWeb, I’ve never been able to find a solid answer on how much of the worldwide profits make it back into the studio’s hands. But here are some of the closest numbers I was able to find. (Please keep in mind that this is a GUESS only and NOT confirmed fact.)
On opening weekend, the studio gets 70-90% of the movie’s profit (sometimes even more than that), but every weekend after that, the percentage decreases to where the theater gets more and the studio gets less. By the fifth or sixth week, the studio is only getting 35%. The shorter the time the movie is in the theater, the more goes to the studio and less goes to the theater.
At the end of the run, depending on how long the movie sticks around in the theater, the profits are probably split about 75% to the studio and 25% to the theater.
For foreign box office numbers, it’s a good deal less. I found one article that said in 2006, American Studios averaged about 40% profit of overseas ticket sales.
So, with these guesstimate numbers, lets take a look at how much profit Fox and Walden have made back on Dawn Treader.
Foreign Total = $242,900,000 * 40% = $97,160,000
Domestic Total = $94,806,410 * 75% = $71,104,807
Fox/Walden’s Guesstimate Profit = $168,264,807
So if these approximate numbers are anywhere close, Fox and Walden have made back their $150 million production budget. However, another $100 million was spent on marketing according to The-Numbers.com, so there’s still a ways to go before they’ll break even.
Thanks to everyone who sent in these links!
ouch…not quite there yet 🙁
but there's still hope!!!!!!! sail on Dawn Treader and bring us the Silver Chair!!!! 🙂
All these numbers are hard to grasp… Form what I can tell it's doing okay, but I had expected the numbers to be higher. I am sad that they haven't even broke even yet 🙁
As NarniaQueeen411 said, Sail on Dawn Treader and bring us the Silver Chair!
If you suport the making of SC go see VDT if you can! I know there are a lot of people who haven't seen it yet and are waiting for the DVD to come out, but trust me it's way abetter in theatres and will help the coming of SC.
Well, There is always DVD & Blu-ray sales to make up the difference. I will be watching closely and keeping my fingers crossed 🙂
It's fun to speculate about Fox/Walden's earnings so far, isn't it? I think Dawn Treader might get a small boost domestically during the upcoming three day holiday weekend, but the foreign box office will be what sends this ship into sweet waters. It's comforting to think that this Narnia may yet reach the 400 million milestone after all.
Love Narnia. Wish it would exist…or does it?
I plan on being a part of that number. 😀 Where do you go for data on DVD sales?
So so so many numbers!!! Fith place worldwide (if I understood correctly) is not too awful at all. I am eager to see the END results, if it can be put that way. 😀
Well, the parallels between C.S. Lewis and Diggory Kirke are striking. Makes you wonder . . . [Anhun arches her eyebrow mysteriously]. 😛
Reepicheep sent me a telegram- he says YES!
sounds like a crazy way to do business- why not wait to the end of the run and just divy up the profits? why this first week emphasis?
It got 200,000 on Monday. At this rate, it might not even make 100 million. 🙁
Most movies have the highest weekend turnout on the first weekend.
DVD and Blu-Ray aren't typically part of the equation when looking at sequels. They are there to either make the film make a profit or help the studio make up the difference if it didn't make it in the box office. Box office is the big indicator.
I just hope the numbers are good enough for them to make SC, and soon. It did just open in a few major countries recently, so there will still be some money coming in.
it will easily reach 100 million domestically. there is a holiday coming up and it only needs 6 million more. i believe it will also reach 400 million worldwide, but the profit for the movie will be in dvd sales.
Here is how I see it. To exceed PC's box office total the film needs 8 more million here in the US (tough, but can be done). It needs 15 more million from China (I think it will get that). It needs to match PC's Japan box office numbers at 27 million (should be no problem) and it needs 33 million from the rest of the overseas markets (that is only 500,000 more from each market).
This is very well within reach and anything over 20 million in China or 27 million in Japan is just gravy!
It would take a miracle for it not to reach 100 million here in the US. The film will AT LEAST run another 30 days. That means it would only need an average of $173,300 per day. I see no way that this does not happen. It should also reach 300 million pretty easily overseas as well. China and Japan might get it to 300 million by themselves.
If the movie reached $110 domestically and $300 foreign, based of the percentages above, it will have made a net of $200 million. That leaves a $50 million deficit, which can be easily closed by dvd sales.
If Fox continues with the franshise, which I think it will, they will most likely lower the budget to $100 million (like the Star Wars movies, because George Lucas personally financed them) and that would close the $50 million deficit without DVD sales.
It seems likely that the next movie, now that the Narnia's are back in momentum, will make more than Dawn Treader.
So Fox and Walden have big decisions to make. Should they make Silver Chair and expect more money without the Pevensie's. Should they go back and make Magician's Nephew?
Either one of these decisions may well make or break the franchise. For example, if they built the franchise back up (after losing followers to PC), which I think they are trying to do, by the time they get to The Last Battle, we may well be seeing LWW numbers.
I personally think they should make The Horse and His Boy, because it has the Pevensie's and a good deal of fighting and adventure. However, this might drop like Prince Caspian.
Magician's Nephew is very much like LWW and might have a better chance. It's hard to know.
And if they continue with the Silver Chair, will they make The Last Battle afterward? If they do this, will we ever see the Magician's Nephew and The Horse and His Boy?
I'm just happy I don't have to make these decisions. I hope that they make the decision that will bring this franchise back up to LWW's numbers, though.
Whatever that decision may be….
With respect, that estimate is way, way, too high.
"Movie houses eventually remit – after deducting their share and the so-called ʻhouse allowanceʼ – between **40 and 50 per cent of the gross in America**. Overseas, the studios get even less.
When Hollywood movies fail to find audiences in America, it is often claimed that these movies redeem their losses overseas. The assumption here is that the box-office receipts abroad are pure gravy for the movie studios. In reality, however, these impressive-sounding receipts represented the foreign theatres' revenue, not the studios' share of it. In fact, the studios get an even smaller share of the foreign than of the American box-office. Last year, the studios' share averaged about 40 per cent of ticket sales. And from those revenues studios have to pay for foreign advertising, prints, taxes, insurance, translations, etc. Once those expenses are deducted, the studios are lucky to wind up with ***15 per cent of what is reported as the foreign gross***.
Consider a typical movie – Disneyʼs Gone In 60 Seconds. Its reported ʻforeign grossʼ was $129,477,395. Of that sum, Disney got $55,979.966 and paid out $37,986,053 in expenses. After paying these expenses, Disney was left with just $17,993,913 – a far cry from the reported $129,477,395 ʻgross'."
-Edward Jay Epstein, author of 'The Big Picture: Money and Power in Hollywood' and 'The Hollywood Economist: The Hidden Financial Reality Behind the Movies'
The film will not break even. The film does not have to break even.
I hate the suspense. I wish I could fast forward time and see whether SC will be made or not. On the other hand, if Fox decides to quit the Narnia series, I'd rather stay in suspense because I at least have some hope now. Once Fox makes the decision, it's over and done with, and if they don't make SC I'll be in despair. So basically I hate to be in suspense, but I don't want to hear news unless it's good. Oh, we're caught between a rock and a hard place here…
hmm this is interesting but i do believe it will be done. Thanks for keeping us updated! 🙂
LONG LIVE ASLAN!
I really hope it does well…. I really want more films!!
So a Silver Chair movie isn't evident? 🙁
Dawn treader is doing much batter is it's first 5 week's opposed to Prince Caspian
PC $254.7 million Worldwide
VDT $342 million worldwide
it looks good for SC!
it looks good for SC!
Dear God,
Please bring us Silver Chair! If that's your will… And please help Fox to be optimistic and greenlight SC, even if VDT totals are a little low (?) And thank you that Fox took on the series. You are God and can do anything! Please use the series to glorify you!!
It amazes me to see the foreign totals continue to rise while domestic totals haven't even broke 100 million. I am pleased that VDT is doing as good as it is considering the economy and the competition. The Silver Chair is one of my top three favorite Narnia books (The Last Battle, being my personal favorite) My least favorite of the books is The Horse and His Boy (no Pevensies included) This book doesn't seem to have the same "feel" as the other books in the series. Personally, I am going back to the theater this Sunday to watch the Dawn Treader again, as Reepicheep said, "We have nothing if not belief.''
Suppose to be Undragoned, cursed keyboard!!!
unfortunately this is kind of an inaccurate comparison. PC got a staggered worldwide release while VDT received an almost simultaneous worldwide release. PC was released in less countries up to this point.
Unfortunately everything's still up in the air. We don't know how much fox gets out of the 337 million. We don't know how much they consider "good enough," and we don't whether or not they'll get there.
According to an article in the LA times, the 100 million marketing total included foreign marketing.
HHB does have Pevensies. Key supporting roles for Edmund and Susan, and a minor role for Lucy. Also, there are a number of Pevensie scenes that are left off page in the book, that could be included in the movie.
OK, if that is the case, then, yes, they have, technically, "earned" 40% of the international total to *apply* to the production budget. That is a very "on paper" approach, but, that does make fantasia_kitty's international numbers accurate, in that sense. Unfortunately, her domestic totals are still AT LEAST $24 million too high. They have not earned back the production budget, and, when the marketing budget (whatever it is) is subtracted from the final net returns, the film is still going to be deep in the hole. Not anywhere NEAR as deep as 'Caspian', though. THAT is the salient point here: NOT "Has it broken even?", but, rather, "Has it performed, relatively, better than the previous film?". The answer to the latter question is "Yes.", and that's where the focus of concern should be, in my opinion.
yeah, seeing as how they take such huge liberties with the book, maybe we'll see lots of pevensie action in HHB. now that would be one change i could support!
another studio could always pick it up!
I was about to complain about VDT's performance in China. However, we should all be grateful that now we have 3 out of 7, a Pevensie Triad. After the DVD comes out, I'm going to see Narnia 1, 2, 3 in one single day and experience how the Pevensies have changed all these years. LOL
P.S. I'm also grateful that VDT can be released in China without any cutting. I don't know whether God will use the rest of the series in a cinematic way but I'm sure that the Three have been a miracle.
Personally, I don't believe any stats the studios claim. Too many stories of movies that made multiple millions over their budget and the studios claim they didn't break even. Also, performers promised bonuses they never received for the same reason. It would be great to get them all made, my personal favorite is "THE MAGICIAN'S NEPHEW".
PS: Some interesting thought about the Triad:
I find that Aslan's roles in the Triad have a slightly different focus respectively. LWW is more about the Son; PC is more about the Father; VDT is more about the Spirit. A kind of Trinity parallel.
Haven't we always heard that the theatres make very little on the ticket sales … that where they make their money is on the outrageously expensive coke and popcorn. I'd say fantasia_kitty's numbers are probably about right. Regardless, Monday's numbers are very disappointing.
Dear God, please give us 'The Silver Chair' because I've been waiting for the movie of that book since I first read it over ten years ago.
Some people have been waiting even longer.
YMMV, but I think what it's made so far is enough for Fox to give it the go-ahead. Fox was actually HAPPY with the first weekend's results. So they're obviously not as ambitious as Disney. From the way it looks, VDT will probably reach $400mil by the end of its theatrical run, and of course there are still the DVD/bluray sales to consider. I'm a little more confident SC will be made. I shall continue to pray for it.
COME ON WE WANT PUDDLEGLUM
I have a bone to pick with all the millions of people who are always complaining about all the garbage put out by "Hollywood" or not having enough quality movies for families/children and yet when a studio invests tens of millions of dollars to produce such a movie, they don't support it. Let's say there are at the very, very least 5 million families of say 4 or so who want decent family oriented movies to go to. This would be 20 million people or so at $8.00 or more a pop … well, you do the math. Millions of these supposed "concerned" citizens aren't supporting this great film and yet they wonder why the studios won't produce more family oriented films. Part of the problem could be the lack of promotion, but it's not an excuse. Again, if only 20 million of this country of over 300 million went to see VDT, SC would have already been green-lit.
I'll add to my previous post: Imagine also if half of these 5 million families of 4 or 10 million people went to see VDT at least twice as we did, it would be an additional $80 million on top of the $160 million for a domestic box office of $240 million or so. Except for the many who have sadly lost their incomes in this economy, shame on the "complainers" who aren't supporting this film.
I feel like 340 million dollars is really good for a movie. Most other movies wish they could make that much it seems. I am choosing to stay positive. We weren't sure Dawn Treader would ever be made, and here it is. I'm sure Silver Chair will come eventually.
The fact that a film can qualify as inoffensive, does not mean that it's any *good*. Why is there such a tendency around these parts to blame everyone and everything but the actual SOURCE of these films for their problems? Shame on the audience for being discerning? Really? Is that what it's come to now?
Make better films, and people will pay to see them. Write to Walden and FOX and the Lewis Estate. Tell them you demand a better product. Blaming the world for not loving a film as much as you do won't change anything. I don't mean to be harsh or confrontational, but the truth is, it's a terribly mediocre film (putting it very kindly), and it's getting the reception that it deserves. C'est la vie.
So is it out in all the countries now?
All these numbers are just making me dizy.
Commonlogic, I agree – I've been pretty upset with all the people who complain about Hollywood, but don't support good stuff when it does come along. Frankly, we probably don't deserve another Narnia movie, because as a whole, we didn't support this one very well.
I challenge anyone who says this – and there have been many – to make a better one. You make a better one and we'll go see it!
Non-Negotiable Comment, why do you keep polluting this site with your exaggerated negativity ? You are like, 10 times more negative than the most realistic person here. Do you actually believe what you write ? Or do you just do it for attention ?
I agree with writing Walden and Fox. They should try not diluting the original source material and see how box office can increase when they don't mess with the books. LWW was the least messed with book of the three!
China this past weekend … Japan on Feb 25
Some people posted that they had seen the numbers from China … I have not been able to find them anywhere. Can anyone give a reference?
I'm choosing to stay positive too! I reckon that they will make SC, just with a smaller budget. Maybe a smaller budget will be good for it anyway- perhaps it will encourage the filmmakers to stick more to the book. 😀
Poor Japan! If I lived there, I would be desperate by now! Well, good things come to those who wait! 😀
"Shame on the audience for being discerning" Nonsense. Can't be discerning if you don't see the film and at least half of the potential audience didn't even bother going to see it, if nothing else for the reasons I've laid out. For those who have seen it, I guess it's a matter of opinion, but I'm sorry to inform you that you are in the minority on this one. Most who have seen VDT liked it very much and more so than both previous films. Unlike the so called "experts" reviewers who were split about 50/50 (some with an anti-christian bias if you read between the lines), 80% or so of us common folk out here liked it a lot. What on earth are you expecting? Good luck with those expectations of yours. I'm not one to tolerate mediocre films and much less ones with hefty budgets. This was a great film. The promotion of this film was dismal in the US and perhaps this was part of the problem. The problem with your argument is that if the latest film of a series, such as Narnia, is not supported because it doesn't meet whatever expectations some may have, the plugged will be pulled, killing the series perhaps forever as no other studio will want to take the risk. Obviously it's in no ones interest to support a lousy film in any series. With the awsome visuals, great story, effects, good enough acting (Eustace was outstanding) but by no stretch of the imagination was this film lousy or mediocre. There's always room for a few changes and improvements, even in LOR. The point is VDT was certainly good enough to support in order to keep the series alive. I just don't want to hear any complaining out there from those who don't support good family oriented films when there are fewer of the good large scale productions to see as studios avoid taking big risks.
WILL SILVER CHAIR BE MADE ?
Believe Me It Heavily DEpends ON THE DVD SALES Especially In India(Where There Is A Great Craze For Narnia)
Non-Negotiable…a terribly mediocre film you said???, ja yeah right, this is a very pretty and wonderful film that's why it has a really good reception overseas could be better but this film it's recover people we lost from the first one and almost 80% of people that already saw it, love it, and i ask some of them, even in 2 ocations they clap in the end in a full theater, but what is the problem with USA box office? they just want to see sex and hot people playing a character that's why twiligth (i think it's a really bad movie) it's successful or harry potter (that the last one the first part leave much to be desired) or stupid movies like jackas i mean they try to do it with prince caspian but it doesn't work cuz' it's not the idea in this movies (but like the romance between caspia and susan)and i love that film but some people don't cuz it's not de market it was oriented, i mean imaginate that toy story a family market transform the plot to a teenage market they had completely ruined, so i think if they still doing more movies more people will see it movie after movie, cuz the idea of this film it's the land of narnia and the magical places not to much in the characters and people it starting to realise that idea specialy where i live.
Non-Negotiable…a terribly mediocre film you said???, ja yeah right, this is a very pretty and wonderful film that's why it has a really good reception overseas could be better but this film is recover people we lost from the first one and almost 80% of people that already saw it, love it, and i ask some of them, even in 2 ocations they clap in the end in a full theater, but what is the problem with USA box office? they just want to see sex and hot people playing a character that's why twiligth (i think it's a really bad movie) it's successful or harry potter (that the last one the first part leave much to be desired) or stupid movies like jackas i mean they tried to do it with prince caspian but it doesn't work cuz' it's not the idea in this movies (but like the romance between caspia and susan)and i love that film but some people don't cuz it's not de market it was oriented, i mean imaginate that toy story a family market transform the plot to a teenage market they had completely ruined, so i think if they still doing more movies more people will see it movie after movie, cuz the idea of this film it's the land of narnia and the magical places not to much in the characters and people it starting to realise that idea specialy where i live.
sorry for the double message but my computer doesn't load very well
totally agree with you YOJAR…i mean yes its obvious Americans love stuff like that coz they make films like that…Narnia is british but my point is to add to your statement to say its also the generation of people…people 50 years ago(when these books was published) like these kinds of books…but now people expect romance…action and effects(but VDT has really good effects)…its a problem….LWW did well coz its a popular book..and they dnt seem to know the rest of the series…what a shame….and i dnt understand coz VDT i heard its the most favourite book of the series…so yh..BUT i hope the filmmakers understand not to expect any narnia film made other than LWW to gross the same or more as LWW…hopefully….otherwise its a problem….and I love this film too…I think they did a great job especially linking the story was rather clever …hopefully we will see another great narnia film 🙂