‘Dawn Treader’ Week 3 Box Office Report
The Voyage of the Dawn Treader came in fourth over the Christmas weekend box office. Little Fockers opened at $30.8 million followed by True Grit at $24.9 million and Tron Legacy which made $19.2 million in its second weekend.
Dawn Treader grossed another $9.5 million in its third weekend bringing its domestic total to $62.6 million. Dawn Treader also continues to do fairly well overseas where it pulled in over $40 million throughout last week, bringing its international total to $165 million, and its worldwide total to $231 million.
I've been reading the box office quite anxiously over the last few weeks, as most of you are, and I think VDT's gross is very hopeful.
Consider this:
Looking at the domestic charts for weekend grosses, PC did this:
1st weekend – $55 mil
2 weekend – $29 mil
3 weekend – $12 mil
4 weekend – $5 mil
5 weekend – $3 mil
6 weekend – 1 mil
And it lowers and lowers.
Let's compare this to VDT:
1st weekend – $24 mil
2 weekend – $12 mil
3 weekend – $9 mil
4 weekend – (a projected) $12 mil (boxoffice.com)
As you can see, VDT is holding up and word of mouth has seemed to have taken charge. Apparently, although I don't believe this myself, PC was grim. It died fast and withered away. VDT claimed the top spot domestically the same time Tourist came out. Now Tourist is practically buried on the charts. Eight movies have come out since VDT and Narnia has lost theaters but is still holding up extremely well.
By the end of this week, I'm guessing it will have $87+ million, which will make it the fourth biggest Walden Media film, only behind the two Narnia's and Journey to the Center of the Earth (101 million).
After this weekend, the day-to-day grosses will be bad (because of school and such), but people will save it for the weekends. The weekends will slowly die down. However, let's say that it makes a steady 3 million a week for 15 weeks. First off, the first few weeks will rake in more than this, so there is much hope.
But sticking with the analogy, that would tack on $45 mill, bringing the domestic total to the $130's–very near PC's domestic gross. And if us fans see it again and again, tell other people about it, be optimistic, and pray (don't forget that), I think it has an excellent chance of reaching PC.
As for foreign profits, I spent a great deal of time today adding up expected grosses from countries where it has not been released, and countries that have not been updated. And I think there is a good chance that VDT reaches $270 mil. Perhaps an even better chance than reaching PC in the domestic arena. Also, some of the countries VDT opened in already is doing better than PC did.
Either way you look at this, once VDT reaches $250, the 60/40 movie theater/producer split will surpass the budget. I don't know about the marketing plan, but I expect VDT can surpass it as well.
Keeping in mind Walden Media's biggest film's are the Narnia franchise, I think they'll keep it alive. In fact, just below the Narnia films is Journey to the Center of the Earth, which made a worldwide total of $241 million worldwide. I also know that Walden is making another Journey movie. Albeit Journey had a lower budget, but if it was really needed, Narnia's budget can be lowered.
In fact, it can be lowered without jeopardy to the product. The most expensive Star Wars' budget was only $115 million, and look how well they were made. Episode one had a $50 mill budget!
Fox and Walden both seem happy.
My guesses:
VDT Domestic: $120 million
Domestic hope: $156 million (one above the budget… for those suckers at Disney.. lol)
Foreign: $282 million (don't ask)
Hope: $300 million
And if you, like me, are optimistic, see the movie again and again. I can tell you personally that I enjoyed it much more the latter times. And see it in 3d. In this worldwide recession, I think it is possible to scrape up a few bucks even so…
Hey, maybe you can find some loose change in your wardrobe.
The production budget was 225 mil. If you add the 100 mil they spent on marketing that makes 325 that the movie cost them.
Now consider the fact that the theatres get their cut of the money. Disney only got part of the 419 mil, most of the 140 domestic take, but a small fraction of the 280 foreign, and you got yourself a flop.
Well.. after finally watching Dawn Treader yesterday ( I know… waited so long! but Harry and Tangled and Christmas gifts had diminished my budget) I loved it! And I felt hopeful… It is the only film that I have watched where after 3 weeks that it has been in theaters, the audience clapped at the end (and I did not start it!) I want to watch it again soon!!!!
One more thing–
PC's weekly gross is as follows:
1 – $68 mil
2 – $34 mil
3 – $17 mil
Whereas, VDT's…
1 – $30 mil
2 – $22 mil
3 – (a projected) $22,669,665+
As you can see, although the slow start, due to the supposed grimness of the last movie, the hiatus between films, the recession, and liberal criticism, the film had a slow start, but is bouncing back and doing, percentage-wise, greater than the last Narnia's.
If it continues, if us fans continue to promulgate the film's greatness, I think it has a good chance at catching PC.
Remember, every ticket counts.
I wouldn't say "irreparably" damaged the franchise. It looks to me as if it's bouncing back quite nicely. I would suggest buying your friend's tickets–that way they can't not go.
For Narnia???
Tribunal,
A little optimism couldn't hurt.
If this Narnia reaches $400 mill, accounting for the 60/40 split, VDT will be in the clear.
Also, how do you know Fox spent 100 mil on advertising? I was under the impression they spent $50 mil, which would bring the amount Narnia would have to pull in to $350 mil.
As Tron goes, it's doing terrible in the countries it has opened in, in comparison to Narnia.
VDT just needs $150 million more.
Think about that…
All it needs is $50 domestic (a reachable number) and $100 foreign (also reachable).
If the "rubbernecking curiosity crowd" options Narnia over current, and some deplorable, alternatives, we have a chance!
And perhaps a little reality wouldn't hurt you.
That $100 million for the marketing has been widely reported. Don't know where you got that $50 million, pulled it out of thin air?
And what countries has Tron performed so "terrible" in? The comparison between both films makes no sense. Narnia is currently playing in 64 markets, compare that to Tron's 27 markets. Not to mention it has been out for a longer period of time.
I read $50 million from an article of which I can't recollect its origins.
But like I said, all it needs is $400 million.
I think it can do it too.
As for Tron, it is a simple procedure to compare it's chart to VDT's. VDT seems to be doing 50% better in every market.
I think that if VDT beats Prince of Persia, there is hope for the Silver Chair.
Moreover, Fox says it has "resurrected" the franchise. They will probably stick with it. A franchise that has earned near to 1,500,000,000 isn't at all a flop. And I'm sure if they stick with the movies they'll make it near to or past 3 billion. Not bad, I would think.
Like I said in another comment, Walden is making another Journey movie–and Narnia is going to pass up Journey's gross by a lot.
And if Narnia's budget must be lowered, so be it. The Star Wars movies had comparably low budgets, yet still maintained tremendous quality.
Even moreover, Fox's Christian appeal is picking up word of mouth (as it is, there are 200 million professing Christian's in the USA). And a supposed 2-3 billion worldwide. The Christian audience is being pandered to, and I think it is working. I can see it working amongst my own church.
There is also a recent pickup in the film that Fox and Walden were counting on–I think they know what they are doing. At the same time, I don't think either of them were expecting the movie to beat PC.
But I think it will.
Aslan's Mane!! 7th JAN?? If i were living in china i would have travelled somewhere else just to watch the movie earlier.
Actually all the new star wars movies had a budget of $115 million. But still, for the results they got from those movies maybe narnia can pull off a budget like that
Well this is very disappointing. Silver Chair won't get made now. This is a failure in every sense.
I can bet my right nut that VDT will make more than 363 million as the worldwide total.
"Either way you look at this, once VDT reaches $250, the 60/40 movie theater/producer split will surpass the budget."
Incorrect. Studio shares in the 60% range are only related to domestic gross, and typically only for the first three weeks. The exhibitors gradually start making a bigger chunk of the pie at this point. So, even if the film's performance remains relatively steady, its profitability will begin to diminish. Furthermore, studios receive, if they are LUCKY, roughly 15% (yes, FIFTEEN) of the foreign gross, after the foreign exhibitors get their piece, and the studio pays foreign marketing costs (advertising, print production, shipping, dubbing, currency conversion, taxes, trade dues, and an endless list of little things that make doing business overseas so much fun–NONE of which the exhibitors contribute towards). The biggest factor, therefore, in a film's profitability is its domestic take for the first three weeks. The better those numbers are, the lower the break-even point. Regardless, it's a much, much more complicated process than adding up international and domestic grosses and multiplying by 0.60. They are two completely different types of numbers.
I still maintain that the film will not break even during its theatrical run. That, however, as I have also said, does NOT preclude the possibility of future films. They are two separate issues. The easiest way to secure a fourth film is for Philip Anschutz to guarantee that FOX gets reimbursed up front, before Walden takes their share. I suspect there already may be a relationship of this nature between the two, which would account for FOX's rather rosy disposition regarding the film's performance. Make no mistake about this: the biggest champion of these films IS Anschutz, not Douglas Gresham or anyone else. So long as he's around, there always is a chance.
Anyway, I'd worry less about the possibility of future films, and more about the possibility that they'll be as bad as this last one.
i think this is good
DON'T SAY THAT!
That is very interesting. VDT's fourth weekend total increased whereas each of PC's weekends decreased. This film is picking up pace peoples!
Funny because I know someone who went to see PC and the audience clapped there too.
I believe this is good and I also think that it will be better after this week…I saw it again and the theater was almost sold out…one of my friends tried to see it and the theater was sold out! I think that a lot of people are seeing it over the holidays and that will help it in the box office!
That definitely sounds good to me,because another person on Narniaweb said that they would need at least much money to make the next movie. (though I'm not sure how he knew that)
Where are you getting the 15% number? Ever film has a different overseas distribution deal. Some get a much bigger % while others get very little based on what deals were struck. That is one reason that The Golden Compass did not warrant a sequel. New Line Cinema pretty much sold off all the foreign grosses to international distributors. That meant, that even though the international gross was pretty big for that film, it didn't help the studio any. 15% is not a set in stone number for every film.
Triple Amen!
See it again and again if you can. 😉
Boy, numbers sure bother me.
It's not that I don't understand them, but I NEVER consider money when it comes to my personal judgement as to whether a film is good or bad. "Dawn Treader" is, in my eyes anyway, an instant classic. The great tragedy of it is that "Dawn Treader" is so much better than "Prince Caspian." It's almost as good as "LWW," and yet, it makes less money than "Caspian" did. That is tragic.
Tribunal, I think the money is in the budget. Why would they spend money they don't have? And an extra 95 million they don't have? That would be very risky. I just don't think they would that. How did you get those numbers?
I wonder how Disney is feeling about Tron Legacy and Tangled right now. Tron is doing fine here, but not much overseas. Tangled has passed its budget, but not by much. As for Warner Bros., Yogi isn't doing so hot, but at least its budget is only $80 million. And thank goodness Gulliver is a flop. It made only $7 million on opening weekend, even with 3D. So think of it. Dawn Treader hasn't actually done as badly as we thought.
When does it open in Japan?
If one hundred people pay for a (I'm guessing 10 dollars per person) ticket, thats one thousand dollars.
I know Yogi's creepy!!!
What makes you think that, Bob?
Have hope!
Wow! And I got a whole bunch of people to see it on Nick.com by using the chat and Message Boards!
Don't say that I've talked with a whole bunch of people that saw it for the first time and they said it was AWESOME!!!!!!
No! The Magician's Nephew!
Shut up all you emo analysts! Think of How to Train Your Dragon earlier this year. It opened to $43 million which was deemed as disappointing compared to Dreamworks' last 3D film Monsters vs Aliens which opened to $59 million. Unlike Monsters vs Aliens, which only ended up with $198 million domestically and $183 million overseas, How to Train Your Dragon ended up with $218 million and $277 million overseas and with only very small weekend drops until the sixth weekend. Therefore, Dreamworks are setting up yet another franchise.
One reason why it overcame its weak opening was because of word of mouth. Although critics aren't being kind to VDT (which is a very unfair call) fans are absolutely loving it and because of this, we have a weekend increase, something that doesn't happen often this soon and something that didn't happen to How to Train Your Dragon until its 16th weekend. This is a sign, that VDT is finally starting to shine at the box office and that Silver Chair will be made!
Late February.
The only reason why VDT is holding so well is because of the time of year. It's typical for movies released in December to pickup during the weeks before and after Christmas. Even Eragon and Golden Compass experienced that bump, and they were both flops in the end. Granted VDT is doing better than those two movies, but my point is, the pick up doesn't mean it's getting good word of mouth or building up steam, it's just a time-of-year phenomenon. The fact of the matter is, VDT is getting extremely mixed reviews from critics and audiences alike. VDT may very well fall off the map next week. 🙁
Tuesday – 3.7
Wednesday – 3.7
Thursday – 3.8
Friday – 4.0
Saturday – 4.8
Sunday – 3.9
Monday – 1.5
Okay, so maybe it won't quite make 25 millio, but it will be close. The box office is not quite as unpredictable as it appears. At this point there is about an 80% chance that VDT will end somewhere between 105 and 115 million. (It will probably be closer to 115)
But analyzing is what makes it fun! :p
Well, yes and no. Like you, I've given up any hope that VDT will rise to PC's heights. However, that doesn't kill all hope for a continuation. If Walden agrees to a lower budget, Fox may continue to fund the series. A lower budget might not be so difficult. SC doesn't require the same intensity of effects, and their are only two actors that they absolutely need to have, Liam Neeson and Will Poulter.
@Not of this World: I've never heard of companies including marketing costs in the production budget.
Tribunal is totally right – I admire everyone for their optimism but the reality is the numbers are terrible and if you were an investor, why would you put your money into a franchise thats clearly on the downward spiral? At least if there was good buzz about it, I'd understand, but this film just came and went.
Ok, Tribunal all I have to say is
1. according to boxofficemojo.com the most ACCURATE movie gross projectile, it has VODT's budget at $155 million.
2. Are you cracking nuts man? VODT is doing amazing for how long it has been out.
3. VODT is actually GAINING money for Fox and Walden.
If you disagree, i'm sorry, but these are REALISTIC numbers 🙂 Have a great and amazing day.
Thats good!! I got almost all my friends to watch it and a bunch of other people on my facebook. I was surprised though that it was still selling out after 3 weeks…I believe that is a really good sign regardless of the factors that are showing now. 🙂
I think we should just stop worring about the numbers and pray that we get a sequal 🙂 I'm sure this is going to be way better than PC expecially when the DVD comes out. You can't just stop making the movies half way through the series! 🙂
I went and saw it again this week. :o)
That supposed to be a 🙂 at the end there. 🙂
I've been reading the Chronicles of Narnia for about forty-one years now, and like many of you, owe them more than I can tell or repay. This may be a heretical thing to suggest, particularly on a site devoted to Narnia on film, but: would it be the end of the world if no future Narnia movies were made?
I went to see "The Lion, the Witch and the Wardrobe" in 2005, and as I sat in the theater waiting for it to start, all I wanted was for it not to stink. When it was done, I sat there, dumbfounded to be almost wholly pleased and thought, "By Himself, they DID it!" And as I walked out of the theater, I found myself thinking, oddly enough, "And now that you movie types have shown you can do it, why not just stop here? I don't think I can go through this again."
Still, I saw "Prince Caspian" in the theater, and I bought the DVD, and I have watched it and LWW several times over; I went (at last) to see VDT a couple of days ago, and though I left the theater with mixed feelings (visually the most beautiful of the three so far, Eustace near to perfect, but story somewhat muddled), I'll likely go see it again in the theater, and will certainly buy the DVD when it comes out. And if they get as far as "The Silver Chair," I suppose that the sheer momentum of curiosity will keep me going back to see the next one, and the one after that. I will almost certainly be retired (if I am still alive) by the time "The Last Battle" is released, and the movie in 3D-VR, but I'll sit down, fasten my seat belt, take whatever medication I am on by then, and say, "Okay–hit me again."
But my point (at last) is that the books AS BOOKS are fundamentally and intimately important to me. They came along at a time in my life when one is as stupid as one ever gets (high school), when I had thought myself long past the age when one reads children's books and was trying hard to be grown-up in the stupid way that boys who aren't grown up imagine they're supposed to be. By chance (in the ordinary way of looking at it), I was reading a book and came across the words "Narnia" and "Aslan" and the names of the books they came from–and for a reason I found hard to understand, though I had never heard of these books before, I knew I had to get at them. That feeling badgered me for several days until I at last found the courage to go to the children's section of the town library, red-faced and hoping nobody I knew would see me, grab as many of the Narnia books as were there, and check them out as hurriedly as I could and get out, like an under-aged kid with a fake ID at a liquor store. Got them home, went to my room, opened "Prince Caspian" (LWW was absent)–and knew, within a very few pages, that my life was changing. I didn't know Who the books were really about–the understanding is always the last to know what's going on–but I knew, as well as a stupid person can know anything, that I was never going to be without these books again. From the Chronicles, it was just a short leap to the rest of CSL's books, and you can probably guess how the rest of the story goes.
It's fun to go to the Narnia movies and see how someone else has imagined certain scenes in the books, and how a whole crew of artists, directors, composers and actors have decided to depict Narnia for the audience–but whatever is up on the screen is not MY book. My Chronicles of Narnia are invested with four decades of experience and the memories of what was happening in my life at the times that I read them. They get deeper and richer as the years go by, in ways that only books can do, because when you read, you do most of the imaginative work; a movie does most of the work for you. More dangerously, it convinces an increasingly less literate audience that, once they've seen the movie, they've experienced the book, and may go no farther.
If "The Silver Chair" is produced, well, God bless it. I will, as I have said, go to see it. But if no other Narnia movie is ever made, some part of me will breathe a quiet sigh of relief. This may be both selfish and short-sighted–I have no idea how many people who wouldn't have read the Chronicles have been steered towards them by the movies, or how many lives have been changed thereby. But watching the Narnia films is somewhat like having someone get hold of my family's photo album and turn it into a feature film: it might make for an entertaining movie, and I would probably pay to see it–but it won't be what the album means to me.
Sincere apologies to anyone whose sensibilities I have offended–no offense was meant. And sorry for the length.
ooh yay!
PC making 450 million is not a "flop". The public responded, the problem was Andrew Adamson was out of control wasting money. If he had been more judicious with his spending on PC, instead of spending millions building a castle and diverting the river and flying crews all over high heaven, we'd still be with disney and on schedule, with superior marketing and Harry gregson williams doing the music.
Astral- they are fighting to continue the series because of the christian element, as there are christians involved in producing it, also they are huge personal fans of CS Lewis and the narnia books series. . so they are willing to do what it takes to get the movies made, as they consider them a evangelistic tool. so even if they don't make a huge profit, they are willing to go ahead as a spiritual devotional tool . the same can't be said for meaningless drivel like TRON.
Wow. I've got to say, Moze, that is a really beautiful way of putting it, and rather encouraging after all the money-money debates. You do have an excellent point; the movies are only adaptations. The books will ever remain the real treasure.
I need someone to explain what the difference is between "international" and "worldwide"…in my mind, those are synonyms. I'd be grateful for the enlightenment. (Oh, and I've seen it 3 times in the past two weeks, including once in 3-D.) 🙂 <><
I think it will all depend on foreign and DVD sales & pay per view. Mainly because that will be the cheapest part of the distribution process. The movie itself couldn't have cost much..no famous actors 1st half looks like it was shot on video, 75% of the film sets were generated in a computer. They most likely spent more on marketing. And that 155 million dollar tag is BS..thats part of the Marketing to give the film perceived value. Silver Chair will most likely get made either for cinemas or direct to video.
Also, whatever the movie grosses worldwide cut that in half and that's what Fox & Walden will make on the movie and divide that amongst themselves. In the 70's box office was just what the rentals were for the studio. But looking at the movie which I thought was great..it couldn't possibly have cost anything over 30 million unless the above the line people got massive checks which is doubtful.
I think for the sake of box office numbers, "international" is the term used opposite of "domestic," and "worldwide" is the total that includes both international and domestic totals combined.
Why? They set it up perfectly for the silver chair at the end of VDT, why do any other book next? (Just saying, not wanting to get in your grill…:))
The 15% is NET share of the domestic sales. Typically, foreign gross share is in the 30% range. But, the other 15% is lost due to the specific costs of doing business overseas. That's a rough generalization, but that's how it works, and it's why domestic gross is so heavily emphasized over foreign.
Nothing about these numbers is "set in stone". That's precisely the point I'm trying to make. There is a HUGE amount of variability at play. Which is why you can't use a broad multiplier of 0.6 across the board. By that logic, 'Prince Caspian' earned $251.8 million for Walden/Disney, with a net profit on the production budget of $26.8 million.
Right.
The numbers are two completely different kettles of fish. The shares are vastly different, and they vary over time.
Irrespective of all that, what I'm trying to say is:
1) For large budget "Hollywood" films of this nature, the three-week domestic gross is THE key indicator of box office performance. These numbers influence the break-even point more than anything else.
2) Theatrical runs are the *beginning* of a film's financial performance, not the sum total. It is not the end of the world if a film does not break even at the box office, necessarily. There's too much manic obsession about that here. Don't expect it to break even, but relax, regardless.
3) These films have one of the richest men on the planet behind them, and he is HIGHLY motivated to see the series continue. That is not to say that Mr. Anschutz earned his position in life by being an idiot with his money. Far, far from it. But, he's a very driven, principled man, and he's, by far, the most significant reason we saw a THIRD film. This franchise has a wildcard that others do not: a billionaire with an emotional attachment to the property, pulling the strings, who can WAIT to earn back his investment.
4) I don't know if No. 3 is necessarily a good thing, considering the abysmal product that was the last film. My hope is that the film does well enough to, eventually, secure 'The Silver Chair', but poorly enough to make the filmmakers question their approach. Or, preferably, to get better filmmakers. Go away, and come back when you get it right, or don't come back at all. I don't want this same tepid, obsessively inoffensive, generic drivel in another two and a half years.
Umm.. Ok Jill Pole.
If you knew what you were talking about you'd know that the budget is the money used to MAKE the film and does not include the marketing. Look at the Prince Caspian page, the budget says $225 million, which again, does not include the marketing money. By your logic VDT was made for $55 million.
And no. It's not "gaining" them money. What people don't understand is that Fox and Walden DO NOT receive 100% of their films grosses. Which is why films have to gross double and even triple the amount of money spent on them.
Sure, every movie receives a bump during the Christmas season, but not even LWW had the bump VDT is getting–that's got to be word of mouth working.
The mixed reviews just aren't true. The liberal media doesn't like it (big surprise), but it has an over 60% approval rating. That's a majority.
Tron only has a 30% approval rating.
@Not of this World.
Why wouldn't they spend those $100 million? Movies don't sell themselves. Again, by your logic you're saying VDT was made for $55 million.
1,000 dollars…. Ok well it will need more like millions of dollars to be seen as a success.
PC deserved it. VDT even more.