Box Office Mojo Analysis for Dawn Treader
Brandon Grey from Box Office Mojo has posted his thoughts on how The Voyage of the Dawn Treader will fair at the box office. He seems to come to the conclusion that making the third Narnia film a box office hit will be an uphill battle, although he realizes that “the book on which it’s based is reportedly dearer to Narnia’s disciples than Prince Caspian was.”
While Prince Caspian received a lot of flack, Narnia was never destined to be the next Lord of the Rings or Harry Potter, despite its auspicious beginning. The first movie was based on the only widely-known book in the Narnia series and it was a complete journey, whereas all of the Potters and Rings were famous and had the benefit of story continuity. The wait was longer between the Narnia movies than for Potter and Rings, and Prince Caspian came off as just another fantasy adventure, nearly indistinguishable from the plethora of similar fantasies made in the wake of Potter and Rings.
In the final paragraph, he writes, “One should expect the ship to sink further than Prince Caspian.” Let’s prove him wrong, NarniaWebbers! As Douglas Gresham would say, bring your friends, and have them bring their friends (and enemies too).
Thanks to narnian1 and Kotarki for the heads-up!
🙁 I hope he's wrong, and that the movie turns out to be fantasic!
Let´s prove them wrong indeed! The Dawn Treader will tread new ground, sail the seven seas and party hard to the break of dawn! Wind it up!
Bring it on!
I have to admit, BOM is right. The Lion, the Witch, and the Wardrobe is by far the best known book in the Chronicles. On the other hand, really good movies have a way of being seen. Look at Avatar. It's raked in billions of dollars because people liked it. Basically, if The Voyage of the Dawn Treader is a great movie, it will probably be sucessful.
His expectations seeme too low. Although I do agree on some parts of this interview. Im hoping he is wrong!
Narnia needs something to make it distinguished from the Rings trilogy. An annoying thing about PC (and LWW to some extent) was what looked like intentional similarities with the LOTR movies.
As long as VDT isn't focused all on war, I hope it does well!
I'd have to agree with BoxOfficeMojo. So let's hope for that "extraordinary marketing effort".
That was a discouraging article. I believe and hope he's wrong as can be. We Narnia fans know that Voyage is one of the best fantasies around. Spread the word to friends who haven't read the book. It can't fail.If it stays close to the book it can't fail!
Well, we can only hope for the best!
He is right to an extent, though I also think that he is overy pessimistic. While I dont expect any Narnia movie to gross more than LWW, I do expect Dawn Treader to be more successful than Prince Caspian. It is also my hope that it will also be enough to green light more Narnia films.
I'll prove him wrong. I'll try to get a ride with some friends, then go with my own family. That'll do my best to give more box office.
Bring it on!
I agree that he has some points he's right about, but that doesn't mean much. Part of Prince Caspian's failure to be a huge success was 1)it's the least-read book in the series, 2)it's a very difficult story to adapt to the screen, and 3)they released it in May, where it had to compete with several long-anticipated movies. It just had no chance. VDT, however, is the most popular book after LWW, and it has a December release, which is probably when it will do the best. Also, I consider it a very good thing that Disney dropped out. While VDT may have lost the "Disney" logo and publicity, it earned a completely new audience with Fox. I feel fairly confident about VDT's release, providing we do our part by giving the best kind of publicity–word of mouth. (Besides, remember Avatar? Everyone thought it would fail…)
It sounds as if he's taking a Puddleglum approach to this… 😛
I think it's a better story than PC, and if the adaption is done well, it will do well in the box office. I will be sure to bring all my friends and their friends (and enemies) to see it!
It's gonna be fantastic!
I think we should all prepare for the worst, but hope for the best. Don't set our hopes too high, but don't get discouraged either.
And predictions are often wrong. 😉
That's the spirit! 😀
I totally think that we can prove him wrong. Altough it may not do as good at first due to Prince Caspian if the movie is good then people will probably go based off of what everyone is saying who went. All I know is that all of my friends and I will be going to the very first show! We are going to get as many people as possible to go!
Of course he's wrong. The flack that Prince Caspian recieved had nothing to do with story continuity or the wait inbetween movies. The reason Prince Caspian did bad is because it's a pathetic movie. The reason why it's a pathetic movie is because the filmmakers didn't stick to the book. The movie makers are supposed to be STORY tellers. But they didn't tell the story of Prince Caspian. Rather, they just expected you to have read the book, and those who didn't read the book didn't have a clue what was going on.
One guy I know who didn't read the book said, "What was the significance of the old guy?"
I was like, "What?!! The old guy?!! You mean Dr. Cornelius?"
He didn't even know who Dr. Cornelius was, nor his significance in the story!
Because the movie makers failed to tell the story of Prince Caspian they left the audience wondering what the heck was going one, therefore the movie didn't perform like any of the big blockbusters like Lord of the Rings.
One of the most touching scenes in Prince Caspian was the reuniting of Caspian and his old nurse. They left it out of the movie!!
i think everyone needs to take a breather right now, and stop thinking about how it has a chance of sinking, because nobody knows that yet. no one can know until the movie comes out. so anyone who is thinking this, we need to neutralize our minds till this movie comes out, then we can have the freedom of choosing if this movie will succeed or not.
he will be proven wrong….the movie is going to be great..
Agreed!!! 🙂
I agree with him. The Franchise needs to work on their timing…by the time the next movie has come out everyone already forgot the last one..lets hope the Dawn Treader picks up speed for future Narnia films!
I AM SURE IT WILL BE GREAT!!!!!!!!!!!!
don't listen to Brandon Grey the movie has not even been out yet he can't judge the movie when its not out yet i think it can be or should be the best in the movie series
does anyone agree with me leave comments
One thing that The Voyage of the Dawn Treader has going for it is: the VDT is a seafaring movie. Harry Potter and Lord of the Rings are not seafaring adventures; therefore, VDT will stand out apart from them. 🙂
VDT is going to do way better than Prince Caspian! I'm going to watch it at least 10 times, no joke!!!!
if you guys have any questions email me grant at gwils14@yahoo.com
Not that I thought Avatar was a bad movie or anything, but I think another reason it did so well was because it was also super hyped.
I have given up hope. It is going to be too different from the book and therefore uninteresting just like Prince Caspian was.
How do you know? You haven't even seen it yet.
I have decided to wait until I have seen VDT before I form any opinion. And yes, the analysis is a bit discouraging, but I'm still gonna bring my friends and enemies! 😉
I think Box Office mojo is an idiot. Harry potter stinks! Narnia rocks. yeah, maybe lww WAS the only widely known book, who bloody cares? Narnis is just awesome to compare it to other fantasy movies that will never match up to it is just stupid. I don't think VDT will sink. I expect it to sail onto into all our hearts! (Okay I know that sounded cheesy beyond all reason, but give me a break, it's 11:04 PM where I am!)
I can't guarantee that it won't be vastly different from the book or otherwise, but I don't think it will be dull. I didn't find PC to be dull, although if I compared it to the book I found it disgraceful. It had a lot of action.
I want VDT to be as close to the book as possible (within reason, of course). But I figure, in terms of my beliefs in adaptation, it can't be any worse than PC! (I hope?) So I'm going to hold my judgment too until I see it. Who knows, maybe I will revert to full book purism! *shrugs* But either way, I am certain it won't be boring.
This guy is like a weather forecaster; sometimes he is right, sometimes close, and others really wrong (either overestimating or underestimating results).
I think he under estimates Narnia as just another fantasy series. I believe VDT will be better than PC and perform better. Time will tell…Sail on VDT! 🙂
Those of you that disagree with this analysis, try arguing with his points instead of just getting emotional.
Most of his points make a lot of sense. The Chronicles of Narnia are seven stand-alone stories, unlike HP or Lord of the Rings. That is indisputable.
LWW is the most widely-known. Hard to argue with that one.
He says PC failed to stand out. I think that’s a very fair point. It just looked like another fantasy film.
It’s very rare for a sequel to be more successful than its predecessor. So it is not unreasonable to predict that VDT will gross less than PC.
(FYI: “Flack” means marketing)
Nurse was cut because the Caspian in the movie is older than the Caspian in the book. Way too old to have a nurse.
So why did Caspian have to be aged? Because it’s important that he be about the same age as Peter. And William Moseley had aged since the filming of LWW. So it was a change that had to be made.
Doctor Cornelius is not as prominent of a character in the movie, because of the unfortunate but necessary structural changes they made. The way the story is told in the book works great in the book, but just would not work in the movie. This fundamental structural change FORCED them to make many more changes. Cutting most of Doc’s scenes was one of those changes.
As a huge fan of film as an art form, I’m slightly offended by the suggestion that a movie’s box office depends on how good it is. Totally not true. Transformers 2 was one of the highest-grossing movies of all time.
Yes, Avatar had a lot of things on its side before it came out. Everyone knew about it and wanted to see it, for one thing. Everyone knew it was visually and technologically stunning. Everyone knew that it had been more than a decade in the making. Before it had even come out, it was widely known and already a big sensation. I don't know that the Dawn Treader could pull off such publicity.
I really don't agree with the article, but I do respect his opinion. The Voyage of the Dawn Treader – any movie really – either will work for people or it wont. We can dissect it for good and bad ad nauseaum. The viewers hold the final word in ticket sales. 🙂 Speculation on my part is that it will do reasonably well.
Just look at the Best Picture winner. Nearly all of them have grossed around 100 million or less. Profit = Quality simply isn't true.
Narnia works well when people don't compare it with the Lord of the Rings and HP anymore. Narnia should be independent if it wants to rock. When people saw PC, some of them held the opinion that it's not as visual effective as the Rings.
Too right. And what about Avatar? Talk about style over substance. The visuals were very good but the rest was very mediocre (perhaps worse). VDT may sound just like any other fantasy movie but it's not.
It is going to be AMAZING 🙂 nobody cares about one persons view cause we all know it is going to be the best film the world has ever seen 🙂
LOVE YOU NARNIA YOU ARE THE AIR THAT I BREATH 🙂
I think to say that structural changes to the book were necessary for the movie is a very strange and closed minded belief. When I read the book Prince Caspian I felt it was structured perfectly for a movie with flashbacks. Just like the flashbacks in Forrest Gump. Just like the flashbacks in Titanic. Just like the flashbacks in The Princess Bride.
The fact that Caspian is too old for a nurse is no problem for the movie. All they would have to do is show some flashbacks to when Caspian was very young and had his nurse taken away. They could have used a child actor who looked like Ben Barnes. Then show him reunite with her when he's older.
It's obvious Caspian made less than half the amount of money LWW made because LWW was a GOOD movie. But the story of Caspian wasn't told the way that Lewis told it, and almost all of the allegory was lost. Which, by the way, the Christian allegory was one of the main reasons Lewis wrote the books. It's no wonder a perverse and worldly movie director like Adamson would want to strip the story bare of it's deeper insights. And this stripping of the story is what cheapened the movie, in both quality and box office revenue.
The success of the Dawn Treader depends solely on how true to the book Micheal Apted will be. If he stays closer to the book than LWW was, then it will be more successful than LWW. But if Apted makes it more untrue to the book than PC was, then it will be a failure.
If Apted doesn't respect the source material, we'll never see the Silver Chair.
As I was reading the full article, I came across this sentence in the studio description: On this bewitching voyage that will test their hearts and spirits, the trio will face magical Dufflepuds, sinister slave traders, roaring dragons and enchanted merfolk. Will these "Enchanted merfolk" play a fairly large part in VDT since they are important enough to put with the dufflepuds, dragons, and slave traders(all pretty major)?
I agree somewhat…let's remember that both films did over $1.2 billion dollars world wide, of which over $400 million world wide for PC. That is nothing to shake a stick at. The problem is these movie experts (ahhh)always look at what the US does to gauge the overall success in the movie industry. again, $160+ million in the US is still a decent take for a novel movie…Out of all the banter so far I have noticed that it is not in our hands anyway. Let's allow the Spirit of which C.S. Lewis wrote these great stories/novels the freedom to do it's work…remember, all the other medias of the movies: DVD sales,rentals,of course THE BOOKS ALONE have been a big seller for over 50+ years..Lets all relax and trust that the message that prevails in all of the media will touch hearts like C.S. intended….that was his plan.
I agree too! 🙂
I respect Brandon Gray's oppinion. But I think that the movie will be pretty good, you can't really judge something untill you see it.
I can understand where he's coming from, but I think it's a tad unfair to judge a movie before there's even a trailer out yet. And I know a lot of people have been making Avatar references, but here's one more: a lot of people thought that movie was going to flop, and look what happened! Let's try to stay optimistic, okay?
I agreed with him a lot towards the end where he wrote that this movie needs marketing efforts. As long as they start putting out the word now instead of after the summer people will get hyped.
Well he's a marsh-wiggle. 🙁
I still think 'Dawn Treader' will do well (better than Prince Caspian').
I liked PC a lot everyone is putting it down in fact I liked it better then LWW, and I think VD is going to be just as good. Cant wait to see the first trailer.
Uggh! Whatever, VD is going to do amazing!!!
I definitely agree with Gresham! Lets try to get people to come! Narnia is AWESOME!
I agree with glumPuddle's points. We shouldn't get emotional. At the same time, how dare Gray judge a movie before a trailer?! Does he know the Narnia series as well as the fans? Probably not. I hope and pray he is wrong about VDT.
1. LWW and VDT are probably the best known in the series.
2. We need to get the word out, people! Just like fans did with LWW!
3. I have more faith in Apted and Fox than Adamson and Disney. Sorry.
4. I'm also partly hoping some spotlight on the cast and/or crew spurs interest in VDT.
I know this has nothing to do with the news story. But I'm looking for NWebbers who responded to my posts on the "Narnia.com Returns" story: Starlily, HighQueenofNarnia, Aravis Tarkheena, Aravis and Hwin, narniafan4ever, [ForNarniaAndForAslan], NarniaFreak, NarnianElf, and Ariel_of_Narnia. If you're interested, there are a few ways of praying for the Narnia cast and crew.
1. My hyperlinked username will lead you to my Facebook group: "Narnia cast and crew: pray!" If you're on Facebook, join the group! But everything is still available [for reading] to non-FBers.
2. If you're on the forum, NarniaWebber Benjamin started a prayer and fasting group for Skandar Keynes. PM him to join.
3. If you're on the forum, you can submit general prayer requests for the Narnia cast and crew in the "Prayer for famous folk" thread.
God bless you all! Pray!
i totally disagree with everything he said!!! dawn treader is going to be amazing!!!!!!
I liked PC too! LWW is my favorite movie. I can't wait for the first trailor!
I've done pretty much all that… except I'm not on FB.
Nathan, the book was NOT structured to make a movie. I mean, some flashbacks are absolutely fine, but too many and the movie gets entirely too confusing. Did you expect them to make approx. a third of the movie in flashback? The book is structured this way. The Pevensies come to Narnia and meet Trumpkin. He tells them all that happened to Caspian and the position that they are in now. They then spend chapters just trying to find the right way. Caspian (the title character) is nonexistent in these chapters. Then the boys and Trumpkin finally meet Caspian. Peter becomes the main character in the fight, not Caspian. The Telmarines come to the bridge, and then there's another flashback to the girls and Aslan. Then all of them meet at the very end.
The Pevensies, in the book, are the main characters, not Caspian. However, the movie is called Prince Caspian. Do you expect them to make a movie called Prince Caspian that's about some kids called the Pevensies? People who just decided to see the movie and don't know about Narnia would become confused that the title character isn't in the story. The producers did it this way to allow Caspian more screen time.